The EoS MLS Forecaster: Week 19

Crystal Ball

By BILL REESE
Staff Writer/Statistician

MLS Week 19:
(July 16-20)

Last week, I spoke about how the New York Red Bulls needed to start exceeding expectations if they were to make something of themselves in the 2014 MLS season—let alone in the EoS MLS Forecaster.

New York’s 4-1 thrashing of Columbus on Saturday night accomplished just that. The Red Bulls’ heightened goals-per-game average was enough to convert a few draws to wins and a few losses to draws. The end result has New York jumping four places in the projected final league table (12th to 8th), and up two spots in the projected Eastern Conference final table (6th to 4th).

New York was one of several teams who enjoyed a healthy bounce in this week’s projected final standings. Chicago Fire’s 1-0 road win had them jump three positions in the projection Eastern table (8th to 5th) and five positions in the final league table (16th to 11th). If we are to believe the Forecaster’s final projections, the Red Bulls would host Chicago in the Eastern Conference play-in match sometime in late October.

Out West, FC Dallas have suddenly resurrected themselves from a second consecutive midseason swoon. The Hoops gained two places in the projected Western table without even kicking a ball. The suddenly and inexplicably unstoppable Chivas USA have climbed another spot in the Western Standings and three places in the overall league table. The Goats are still projected to finish outside the playoffs, but they are beginning to get some respect in the Forecaster’s predictions.

This week’s projections call for the Goats grab a point from East-leading DC United at RFK on Sunday night.

The Forecaster unsurprisingly maintains its prediction of the Seattle Sounders winning the 2014 Supporters Shield, fending off the LA Galaxy on the final day. Why is LA Galaxy predicted to do so well considering they currently sit outside the playoffs in the West? The Galaxy have played 15 matches, the fewest contests in the league, tied with Toronto. LA still have 10 matches remaining to play at StubHub Center (11 if you count their second road match against Chivas USA). While LA isn’t scoring a ton of goals at home, they’re hardly conceding goals at home either, less than one per match.

Sporting KC is now predicted to win the Eastern Conference, even though previous projected conference champion DC United won this past weekend. DC’s opponents stats improved over the weekend while KC’s mostly held still. DC is still projected to get a first-round bye along with Toronto FC.

Last Week’s Prediction Results
6 correct, 3 incorrect (67% correct)

Overall 2014 Prediction Results
33 correct, 72 incorrect (31% correct)

Week 19 Predictions
Philadelphia = New York
Columbus Vancouver
LA Galaxy > New England
Portland = Colorado
Sporting KC = LA Galaxy
New York >
San Jose
Columbus > Montreal
Chicago New England
Houston Vancouver
DC United = Chivas USA

MLS SEASON FORECASTER

A B C D E F G
1
Supporters Shield Prediction W L D Pts. Change from Last week
2
1 SEATTLE 23 7 4 73 =
3
2 LA GALAXY 21 5 8 71 =
4
3 SPORTING KC 20 5 9 69 +1
5
4 DC UNITED 19 7 8 65 -1
6
5 TORONTO FC 18 9 7 61 +1
7
6 REAL SALT LAKE 14 8 12 54 +1
8
7 FC DALLAS 13 11 10 49 +3
9
8 NEW YORK 12 9 13 49 +4
10
9 COLORADO 13 12 9 48 =
11
10 VANCOUVER 10 11 13 43 -5
12
11 CHICAGO 8 10 16 40 +5
13
12 CHIVAS USA 10 15 9 39 +3
14
13 NEW ENGLAND 11 18 5 38 -5
15
14 PHILADELPHIA 9 14 11 38 -1
16
15 COLUMBUS 8 12 14 38 -4
17
16 PORTLAND 7 13 14 35 -2
18
17 HOUSTON 7 23 4 25 +1
19
18 SAN JOSE 4 19 11 23 -1
20
19 MONTREAL 4 23 7 19 =
21
22
Eastern Conf. Prediction W L D Pts. Change from Last week
23
1 SPORTING KC 20 5 9 69 +1
24
2 DC UNITED 19 7 8 65 -1
25
3 TORONTO FC 18 9 7 61 =
26
4 NEW YORK 12 9 13 49 +2
27
5 CHICAGO 8 10 16 40 +3
28
6 NEW ENGLAND 11 18 5 38 -2
29
7 PHILADELPHIA 9 14 11 38 =
30
8 COLUMBUS 8 12 14 38 -3
31
9 HOUSTON 7 23 4 25 =
32
10 MONTREAL 4 23 7 19 =
33
34
Western Conf. Prediction W L D Pts. Change from Last week
35
1 SEATTLE 23 7 4 73 =
36
2 LA GALAXY 21 5 8 71 =
37
3 REAL SALT LAKE 14 8 12 54 +1
38
4 FC DALLAS 13 11 10 49 +2
39
5 COLORADO 13 12 9 48 =
40
6 VANCOUVER 10 11 13 43 -3
41
7 CHIVAS USA 10 15 9 39 +1
42
8 PORTLAND 7 13 14 35 -1
43
9 SAN JOSE 4 19 11 23 =

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